AlpharvestPro市場廣度指標:MA50 之上比率與 MA200 之上比率告訴你的事
Market Breadth Indicators: What Above-MA50% and Above-MA200% Tell You市場廣度指標:MA50 之上比率與 MA200 之上比率告訴你的事
What is Market Breadth?
Market breadth measures how many stocks participate in a market move. A rising market index can be misleading — if only 10 large-cap stocks are pushing the index up while 90% of stocks are declining, the rally is narrow and fragile.
Breadth indicators answer a simple question: is the whole market moving, or just a few stocks?
什麼是市場廣度?
市場廣度(Market Breadth)是衡量「行情有多少個股實際參與」的指標。看似上漲的指數可能會誤導你 ── 如果只有 10 檔大型股拉抬指數,而 90% 的個股實際上在下跌,這種行情就是非常窄、非常脆弱的。
廣度指標回答一個簡單問題:現在是「整個市場」在動,還是「只有少數幾檔個股」在動?
The Two Key Breadth Indicators
% Above MA50 (Short-term breadth)
This measures the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving average. The 50-day MA represents roughly 2.5 months of trading activity.
| Range | Market Condition | Action |
|---|---|---|
| 70%+ | Strong short-term uptrend | Bullish — broad participation, good for new entries |
| 50-70% | Healthy but selective | Neutral — be selective with entries |
| 30-50% | Weakening breadth | Cautious — reduce position sizes, tighten stops |
| Below 30% | Short-term oversold | Defensive — avoid new longs, wait for recovery |
% Above MA200 (Long-term breadth)
This measures the percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average. The 200-day MA represents roughly 10 months — the long-term trend.
| Range | Market Condition | Action |
|---|---|---|
| 65%+ | Strong long-term uptrend | Secular bull market conditions |
| 50-65% | Healthy long-term trend | Normal bull market |
| 35-50% | Deteriorating long-term trend | Transition zone — be careful |
| Below 35% | Bear market conditions | Most stocks in long-term downtrends |
兩個核心廣度指標
MA50 之上比率(短期廣度)
衡量目前股價站上 50 日移動平均線的個股佔比。50 日均線約代表 2.5 個月的交易活動。
| 區間 | 市場狀況 | 操作建議 |
|---|---|---|
| 70%+ | 短期強勢上升趨勢 | 偏多 ── 參與廣泛,適合新進場 |
| 50-70% | 健康但需挑選 | 中性 ── 進場挑選為主 |
| 30-50% | 廣度走弱 | 謹慎 ── 縮小部位、收緊停損 |
| 30% 以下 | 短期超賣 | 防守 ── 避免新作多,等待回穩 |
MA200 之上比率(長期廣度)
衡量目前股價站上 200 日移動平均線的個股佔比。200 日均線約代表 10 個月 ── 也就是長期趨勢。
| 區間 | 市場狀況 | 操作建議 |
|---|---|---|
| 65%+ | 長期強勢上升趨勢 | 結構性多頭環境 |
| 50-65% | 長期趨勢健康 | 一般多頭市場 |
| 35-50% | 長期趨勢轉差 | 過渡區 ── 須小心 |
| 35% 以下 | 空頭市場環境 | 多數個股處於長期下降趨勢 |
AlpharvestPro's Composite Sentiment Score
We combine breadth with other indicators into a single 0-100 composite score:
| Component | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|
| % Above MA50 | 30% | Short-term participation breadth |
| % Above MA200 | 25% | Long-term trend health |
| Minervini Pass Rate (×2) | 20% | Quality of uptrends (doubled for sensitivity) |
| Entry Signal Density | 15% | Active buy opportunities |
| RS Leader Density | 10% | Concentration of momentum stocks |
Composite Score interpretation:
| Score | Label | Trading Posture |
|---|---|---|
| 70-100 | Strong Bull | Full offense — maximum position count, aggressive entries |
| 50-69 | Moderate Bull | Selective — buy the best setups, pass on marginal ones |
| 40-49 | Neutral | Cautious — smaller positions, wider stops |
| 20-39 | Bearish | Defensive — reduce exposure, no new longs |
| 0-19 | Strong Bear | Capital preservation — cash is a position |
Reading Breadth Divergences
The most valuable breadth signal is a divergence between the market index and breadth indicators:
Bearish divergence (warning)
Index makes a new high BUT % above MA50 is lower than the prior high. This means fewer stocks are participating in the new high — the rally is narrowing. Often precedes a correction.
Bullish divergence (opportunity)
Index makes a new low BUT % above MA50 is higher than the prior low. This means more stocks are recovering even as the index drops — selling is exhausted. Often precedes a rally.
AlpharvestPro 綜合情緒分數
我們將廣度指標與其他指標,結合為單一的 0-100 綜合分數:
| 構成要素 | 權重 | 原因 |
|---|---|---|
| MA50 之上比率 | 30% | 短期參與廣度 |
| MA200 之上比率 | 25% | 長期趨勢健康度 |
| 明納維尼通過率(×2) | 20% | 上升趨勢的品質(加倍以提高敏感度) |
| 進場訊號密度 | 15% | 當前可交易機會多寡 |
| RS 領先股密度 | 10% | 動能個股的集中度 |
綜合分數判讀:
| 分數 | 標籤 | 操作姿態 |
|---|---|---|
| 70-100 | 強多 | 全力進攻 ── 部位最大、積極進場 |
| 50-69 | 偏多 | 挑選 ── 只買最佳設置,放掉邊緣設置 |
| 40-49 | 中性 | 謹慎 ── 部位較小、停損加寬 |
| 20-39 | 偏空 | 防守 ── 降低部位、暫不作多 |
| 0-19 | 強空 | 資金保全 ── 現金也是一種部位 |
解讀廣度背離訊號
廣度指標最有價值的訊號,就是大盤指數與廣度之間出現背離:
空頭背離(警告)
指數創新高,但 MA50 之上比率卻低於前次高點。代表參與此次新高的個股變少了 ── 行情正在收窄。常常出現在修正之前。
多頭背離(機會)
指數創新低,但 MA50 之上比率卻高於前次低點。代表即使指數還在跌,反彈的個股已經變多 ── 賣壓正在耗盡。常常出現在反彈行情之前。
四大市場的廣度
AlpharvestPro 為每個市場獨立計算市場廣度:
| 市場 | 範圍 | 衡量檔數 | 儀表板 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 日本股市 | 全部上市 | 3,658 | alpharvestpro.com/dashboard |
| 美國股市 | 全部上市 | 5,746 | alpharvestpro.com/dashboard |
| 台股 | 全部上市 | 1,925 | alpharvestpro.win/dashboard |
| 港股 | 全部上市 | 2,378 | alpharvestpro.win/dashboard |
跨市場比較廣度,可以看出哪個市場目前最適合執行動能策略。例如日股的 MA50 之上比率為 65%,美股卻只有 35%,那就是清楚的訊號:把火力集中在日股。
實戰每日流程
- 晨間檢視(30 秒): 打開所屬市場的情緒儀表板
- 解讀綜合分數: 50 以上 = 繼續操作;40 以下 = 切換防守模式
- 檢查 MA50 之上比率: 50% 以上 = 短期健康;30% 以下 = 暫停進場
- 與昨日比較: 廣度上升 = 改善中;廣度下降 = 惡化中
- 再看個股: 唯有市場廣度確認環境有利,才進到個股層面
Breadth Across 4 Markets
AlpharvestPro calculates breadth independently for each market:
| Market | Universe | Stocks Measured | Dashboard |
|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | All listed | 3,658 | alpharvestpro.com/dashboard |
| US | All listed | 5,746 | alpharvestpro.com/dashboard |
| Taiwan | All listed | 1,925 | alpharvestpro.win/dashboard |
| Hong Kong | All listed | 2,378 | alpharvestpro.win/dashboard |
Cross-market breadth comparison reveals which markets are in the best condition for momentum strategies. If Japan shows 65% above MA50 while the US shows 35%, that's a clear signal to focus on Japanese stocks.
Practical Daily Workflow
- Morning check (30 seconds): Open the Sentiment Dashboard for your market
- Read the composite score: Above 50 = proceed. Below 40 = defensive mode.
- Check % Above MA50: Above 50% = short-term healthy. Below 30% = wait.
- Compare to yesterday: Rising breadth = improving. Falling breadth = deteriorating.
- Then look at individual stocks: Only after market breadth confirms a favorable environment.
FAQ
Why does AlpharvestPro track breadth for ALL stocks, not just index constituents?
Index breadth can be skewed by component weighting. Measuring all 3,658 Japanese stocks (not just JPX-400) gives a truer picture of market health. If only large-caps are healthy but small/mid-caps are suffering, that's a warning.
How quickly does breadth change?
% Above MA50 can shift 10-20 percentage points in a single week during sharp market moves. % Above MA200 changes slowly — it takes sustained weakness or strength over weeks to move significantly.
Is there a single "best" breadth indicator?
No single indicator is sufficient. That's why AlpharvestPro combines 5 indicators into the composite score. % Above MA50 is the most sensitive (reacts fastest), while % Above MA200 is the most reliable (fewest false signals).
為什麼 AlpharvestPro 統計「全部個股」的廣度,而不是只看指數成分股?
指數廣度會被成分股權重扭曲。把全部 3,658 檔日股(而非僅 JPX-400)都納入計算,才能更真實地反映市場健康度。如果只有大型股健康、中小型股卻在受傷,那本身就是一個警訊。
廣度變化的速度有多快?
MA50 之上比率在劇烈行情中,可能一週內變動 10-20 個百分點。MA200 之上比率變化緩慢 ── 通常需要持續數週的疲弱或強勢才會出現顯著變動。
有沒有單一「最佳」的廣度指標?
沒有任何單一指標夠用。這正是 AlpharvestPro 把 5 項指標整合為綜合分數的原因。MA50 之上比率反應最快、最敏感;MA200 之上比率最可靠、假訊號最少。
This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to buy or sell securities.
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