What a Stage Rotation Map Shows

A Stage Rotation Map is a research visualization for comparing market structure across major indices, sectors, themes, or ETF groups. Each point represents one series. Its location summarizes two related questions: is the long-term trend rising or falling, and is price positioned above or below that trend? An eight-week trail shows how the series arrived at its current position.

The map is descriptive rather than predictive. It does not estimate future returns, issue entries, or recommend securities. Its job is to put many series into the same visual frame so a researcher can compare direction, position, and change over time.

The Four Weinstein Stages

The stage names follow Stan Weinstein's framework in Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets.

The stage badge is the classifier's authoritative output. A point can sit near a quadrant boundary while retaining its current stage; that disagreement is useful transition context, not an error. AlpharvestPro keeps the classifier's numeric calibration internal.

How to Read the Axes and Trail

The horizontal axis represents the direction of the long-term trend. Moving right means that trend is strengthening; moving left means it is weakening. The vertical axis represents price's position relative to the same trend. Moving up means price is farther above it; moving down means price is below it.

Read three things together:

1. Current stage — the point color and stage label describe the present structural classification.
2. Current position — the point's location shows trend direction and price position on a shared scale.
3. Eight-week trail — the path shows whether the series is moving toward, away from, or along a stage boundary.

Always check the as-of date printed inside the map. Markets observe different holidays and source data can complete at different times, so two market maps do not always share the same final trading date.

Worked Example: Thematic ETF Groups

Suppose a thematic ETF group is labeled Stage 2 and its trail moves right while remaining above the horizontal center. The map is describing an advancing structure whose long-term trend direction has strengthened during the displayed weeks. If the trail later bends left or down, that describes a change in structure; it does not by itself predict the next return.

Compare the map with the accompanying ranking table and heatmap. The ranking supplies current relative context, the heatmap shows the session's breadth, and the Stage Rotation Map supplies the longer-horizon path. No single view should be treated as a stand-alone signal.

Explore the Live Maps

• US thematic ETF rankings and Stage Rotation Map — 17 thematic ETF groups.
• US ETF Momentum Dashboard — 1,443 US ETFs and broad category rankings.
• US and Japan heatmaps + Stage Rotation Maps — S&P 500 and JPX-Nikkei 400 display page.
• Taiwan and Hong Kong heatmaps + Stage Rotation Maps — TW200 and HSLMI display page.
• Four-market map hub — links to all display surfaces.
• How to Read Stock Market Heatmaps — daily breadth and sector context.

The four-market rotation set covers 60 major-index, sector, and thematic series: 21 US, 22 Japan, 9 Taiwan, and 8 Hong Kong. Counts describe the published comparison set, not an investable universe or performance claim.

FAQ

Is a Stage Rotation Map a forecast?

No. It describes current and recent market structure. It does not estimate future returns or predict when a stage will change.

Why can a point and its quadrant appear to disagree?

The point color comes from the stage classifier, while position comes from two continuous measurements. Near a boundary, the two can differ temporarily; that is transition context rather than a rendering error.

How often do the maps update?

They refresh after the relevant source market data completes. Use the as-of date inside each map rather than assuming all markets share one date.

Is the map investment advice or a trading signal?

No. It is an educational research visualization for comparing structure and momentum. It is not a recommendation, solicitation, forecast, or trading signal.